Re: [RRG] NAT-PT and other approaches to IPv6 adoption - Dual Stack Lite: P2P usage rates

[Robin Whittle <rw@firstpr.com.au>]

Short version:   According to one research report, 18% of work PCs
                 and 36% of home PCs have at least one P2P
                 application installed.


I did a little research on P2P adoption, which is relevant to the
prospects of "Dual Stack Lite" - which seems to be one of the few
possible ways by which large numbers of domestic customers might
gain IPv6 space without each using an IPv4 address for themselves.

Such reduced usage of IPv4 space is relevant to one of the factors
which will increasingly drive the IPv4 routing scaling problem:
finer slicing of space to enable greater utilization.

"Dual Stack Lite" seems like a pretty weak way to wean people off
IPv4, but this seems to be the most prominent potential approach by
which it might be expected to happen any time soon.  With the RRG
rough consensus prioritising IPv6 over IPv4, I think it is fair to
say that this rough consensus is predicated on an expectation of
widespread IPv6 adoption and IPv4 abandonment in the next five to
ten years.


http://techtalk.pcpitstop.com/2007/08/01/p2p-programs-popular-and-perilous/

May 2005 survey of PCs (in the USA, I guess):

  Kazaa       10.48%
  WinMX        8.74%
  LimeWire     7.23% 	
  BitTorrent   3.49% 	
  Ares         2.73%
  Bearshare    2.58%
  Shareaza     2.26% 	
  eMule        1.99%
  BitTornado   1.84%
  Morpheus     1.11%
  iMesh        1.01%

  Total       43.46

However less than this proportion of PCs would have a P2P program
installed.

http://torrentfreak.com/limewire-most-installed-p2p-application-bittorrent-clients-runner-up/

Quotes a report, presumably from late 2006 or early 2007, based on
PC Pitstop research, showing:

  Limewire     18.3%
  eDonkey       3.3%
  Azureus       3.2%
  uTorrent      2.7%
  BitTorrent    2.6%
  BearShare     2.5%
  mIRC          2.3%
  eMule         2.0%
  BitComet      2.0%
  Ares          1.9%

  Total        40.8%

http://torrentfreak.com/p2p-statistics-080426/

April 2008 - another indirect report of some research by PC Pitstop:

   . . . almost one out of five PCs at work (18%) have at least
   one P2P application installed. For home computer this is little
   over 1 in three (36%)


While not every PC with a P2P app installed is actively being used
for P2P, my argument is that this is a big enough proportion of
highly motivated customers to present serious problems for any IPv4
address sharing arrangment such as "Dual Stack Lite", which
evidently prevents the full use of such programs.

  - Robin

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