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IPv4 consumption statistics and extrapolations

I would like to correct a few numbers in Tony's comments based on my work
in this area that Tony has referred to.

The least squares best fit of advertised address space in the IPv4 domain
over the past 5 years is a consumption rate of 4 /8s per year, slightly
less than half of Tony's number

Even over the past 10 months the least squares best fit of data is a
consumption rate of 5.5/8's per year

At this rate the central pool will exhaust in 2018, some 14 years hence.
i.e. some 168 months hence. Allowing for an accelerating consumption rate
at an exponential rate brings this forward to 10 years, or 120 months.
(details of the analysis are at http://bgp.potaroo.net/ipv4/)

(Of course you should consult your favourite oracle, mystic, soothsayer or
whatever for your own preferred version of the future.)

regards,

    Geoff


At 07:38 AM 6/11/2004, Tony Hain wrote: 
Harald,

I would like to congratulate you on your successes, and suggest you have the
opportunity to be the last chair to preside over active work related to
version 4 of the IP protocol suite. With the publication of the tunneling
drafts that v6ops has been sitting on, there is no further need to discuss
32 bit address objects. At the same time, there is really no further
justification for any other IETF working group to be discussing 32 bit
addresses in current work. With all due respect to Geoff's efforts to
document the address growth rate in the routing system, even he acknowledges
that measure lags the allocation timeframe and assumes the RIRs will recover
all space currently considered lost. Given that IANA allocated 9 /8's over a
6 month period this year, coupled with the fact that only 78 /8's remain in
the useful part of the pool (ie: 52 month burn out), it should be clear to
everyone that products that rely on current standards activities will appear
in the market place after the central pool of 32 bit values has run dry. As
such I would recommend your legacy include an active review of all working
group discussions next week for items related to IPv4, followed by closure
of all 32 bit address related work items before your departure in March.

Tony


-----Original Message-----
From: ietf-bounces@ietf.org [mailto:ietf-bounces@ietf.org] On Behalf Of
Harald Tveit Alvestrand
Sent: Friday, November 05, 2004 1:20 AM
To: ietf@ietf.org
Subject: Stepping down as IETF chair in March

Thomas' note reminded me that there are probably some people who haven't
heard this yet....

I'm stepping down as IETF chair in March, and I am not a candidate for
reappointment.

It's been a great four years, containing lots of learning experience, lots
of hard work and lots of joy - but after four years as IETF chair, and ten
years total on the IESG/IAB, March seems an appropriate time for me to
leave this stage of my life behind.

The IETF is a great organization. I will enjoy watching it continue to
grow
and prosper under new leadership.

Thank you!

                  Harald

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