I don't think there is any way to determine this beforehand.
This is news to me. I would really appreciate some pointers to archives of these past discussions.We have had this discussion many times in the past 10 years. After many rounds of e-mail, the consensus generally is that if geo is going to happen, it will happen "bottom up" and be user driven.
For example, oneSo if I want to do this in a slightly larger area, say everything within a 20000 km radius of The Hague, I could get a larger address block, say a /16?
may see the chamber of commerce of lower Picardy request a /32 from
RIPE, and use it to provides "independent" /48 addresses to its members,
using a combination of tunnels and arrangements with local ISP. In fact,
there are already a few virtual ISP operating under this model.