Re: [RRG] IPv4/6/ngng or IPv4-map-encap then IPngng

[Robin Whittle <rw@firstpr.com.au>]

Hi Per,

You wrote:

> Efforts to extend the life of v4 may fall on one simple issue.
> What if we can't re-claim or reuse enough of the previously
> assigned address-blocks to meet the markets demand for growth at
> the customer edge?

I agree.

I can't say for sure what will happen.  I believe there are good
reasons to believe that commercial pressures will drive the adoption
of a finer slicing and better management technique - map-encap - to
make it technically possible without worsening the routing scaling
problem.

One that happens, I figure money and IP addresses will change hands
quite merrily.

> We may know how much of the space isn't announced to the DFZ or 
> otherwise have potential for reuse, but there's no data to 
> support that this actually will happen, even if all and any
> constraints on routing were lifted.

"Data" about the future is hard to come by!

I have no data on how much address space existing holders would give
up, but if the price was right, I am sure that quite a lot of space
could be found.  The idea is to find it in largish chunks, so that
chunk can be a single advertised prefix split up among many -
hundreds or maybe thousands - of end-user networks.

I am not sure of the morality or legality of those with space now
selling it.  I am just saying that if there are folks clamouring for
it with money to pay for it, then this is a good motivation for
those with sparsely used space to consolidate their usage into a
smaller patch and to vacate the rest.  Maybe the vacant space goes
back to the RIR, or maybe they sell it or rent it.

I just think that at every point in time for a long while to come,
it will be easier and more profitable to use IPv4 more intensively
than try to get paying home and SOHO customers (or end-user
networks) to do without IPv4 addresses and rely on IPv6 only -
albeit with some IPv4 space for ALGs, NAT-PT, NAT64 etc.

I wrote more on this:

  http://lists.arin.net/pipermail/arin-ppml/2008-June/011005.html

and have discussed this notion on the RRG in previous months.  I am
not sure I convinced anyone, but it looks pretty likely to me.

 - Robin


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