Re: [RRG] IPv4 shortage, new features and IPv6 inevitability

[Iljitsch van Beijnum <iljitsch@muada.com>]

On 26 nov 2007, at 9:17, Tom Petch wrote:

> What strikes me is that I - we? - really have no idea why IP  
> addresses are
> needed.  We can see who has the allocations, we can follow (and  
> shape) the
> policy for this, but I do not see why the number of addresses in use  
> is rising
> and I think it matters because the 'why' will affect predictions of  
> future
> growth.

> If, for example, it is because addresses are being used to provide  
> dial-up
> access for new users in India and China, then clearly there is a  
> latent demand
> in the billions, which will continue for decades.

It doesn't have to be dial-up... Broadband is even "worse" here.

I download all the RIR allocation data a few times a week and put it  
in a database that's available through http://www.bgpexpert.com/addrspace.php

If you look at India:

RIR     Country   Addresses    Date

                     0.18 M  2003
                     2.36 M  2004
                     1.04 M  2005
                     2.23 M  2006
                     5.60 M  2007

That doesn't amount to much. I suspect that India may use space from  
American ISPs that doesn't show as "in", though. But China is going  
strong:

                    12.16 M  2003
                    18.69 M  2004
                    14.01 M  2005
                    23.66 M  2006
                    36.06 M  2007

The US seems to be over the hill, though (caveats apply due to ARIN's  
backdating practices):

                    20.71 M  2003
                    29.81 M  2004
                    49.68 M  2005
                    47.01 M  2006
                    25.30 M  2007

But not Europe (RIR = ripencc):

                    29.58 M  2003
                    47.63 M  2004
                    58.09 M  2005
                    56.43 M  2006
                    60.77 M  2007

> If instead it is because of the recent mass migration from dial-up to
> broad-band, from a contended-for pool to a permanent /30 per  
> potential user  -
> and there is as much evidence to support this hypothesis as there is  
> of the
> widespread adoption of IPv6 - then this is a temporary phenomenon  
> and the demand
> will dry up in a few more years.

> I really don't know (and see it as significant to the debate); does  
> anyone?

Not really. It seems the US is finally slowing down in the number of  
new addresses that it uses every year, but the rest of the world, even  
western Europe, isn't. This could be a temporary thing, such as one or  
two of the largest ISPs working off of addresses they got last year.  
It could also be a trend. On the other hand, new devices such as the  
iPhone use up extra address space, which could reignite address use in  
the coming years.

The only thing that's obvious is that China is using up address space  
really fast with no end in sight.

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