Re: Regulatory Drivers in all of this

[Andre Gironda <andre@operations.net>]

On Tue, May 18, 2004 at 11:17:20PM +0000, Paul Vixie wrote:
> i characterize the population differently.  still two groups, but one of
> them thinks that VoIP is a kind of telephony whereas the other thinks of
> VoIP as just another IP application.  i'm in the latter group, but if i'd
> invested hundreds of millions of dollars in TDM gear i'd be in the former
> group.  i think the tension between these groups is very nearly "explosive."

i think these results summarize the capabilities of VoIP quite nicely:
http://www.voip-info.org/tiki-index.php?page=Asterisk+bandwidth+iax2
especially considering that IP bandwidth sells as low at $30/Mbps or $0
when peered out, and local/800/global-800 inbound sells around 2 to 10
cents per minute while outbound sells at below 2 cents per minute (or
$0 when peered out).

it's my hope that all TDM gear will be worthless by the end of the year
and these traditionaly telephony experts will finally retrain themselves
to ip-tel.  i see everything in blurry Cisco and Asterisk lines, too, unless
the competition can step up.  cisco sold 1M hardphones in the past 8 months,
to a current 3M installbase.  i figure at least 20% of those are being
tricked over to SIP and/or hit SER or Asterisk "callmanagers".

so when are mci, sprint, level-3, qwest, et al going to figure out that
their voice network is starting to cost them money just to keep it around?
and how long is it going to take them to raise IP transit prices back up to
$500/Mbps and depeer everyone but themselves?

just as a side note, i asked a local ip telephony provider today if they
would take all my Local/LD so I don't need any TDM.  i asked if i could
hand it to them over optical ethernet (read: the "other" outsourced TDM)
and if they would provide an H.323 gateway for us to use.  they haven't
responded yet, but i think i'm starting to see some new trends that i
thought i'd like to share.


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