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Re: [RRG] Moving forward... IPv4 now, IPv6 less urgent and perhaps more ambitious




On Jun 10, 2008, at 10:14 AM, William Herrin wrote:

On Tue, Jun 10, 2008 at 9:41 AM, David Conrad <drc@virtualized.org> wrote:
On Jun 9, 2008, at 8:07 PM, William Herrin wrote:
The identified problem is:

find a way to drastically reduce the $8000/year cost of each IPv4
prefix in the core.

I'd be curious as to how you derived this number.

Hi David,

http://bill.herrin.us/network/bgpcost.html

The source numbers change with time. Feel free to plug any realistic
source numbers into the formula that you please. The end result will
have the same impact: the cost is nontrivial.

If you want to challenge the methodology, I respectfully ask that you
find someone who does cost analysis for a living to assist you with
the particulars. I had a professional cost analyst review and validate
it. Same guy who got the V22 Osprey canceled before Congress put it
back.

Note that another hard to estimate number is the economic benefit of the Internet, but it is reasonable to estimate this as at least $ 200 billion / year, but probably 2 or 3 times that. The direct revenue estimates I could find were all > $ 200 billion / year.

So, the $ 2 billion / year to run BGP that you estimate is a cost of doing business no more than 1% of revenue, and probably more like 0.3 to 0.5% of Internet revenue, aggregated globally. Non-trivial, to be sure, but that level does not seem unsustainable or even unreasonable.

To put it another way, that prefix is worth the money.

Regards
Marshall






Shifting focus to IPv6 abandons the problem.

Not really, since generally IPv6 routes and IPv4 routes are combined when
computing routing load.

If we do nothing, by what date do you expect IPv6 to exceed even 2% of
the total routing load?

I stand by my statement.

Regards,
Bill Herrin


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William D. Herrin ................ herrin@dirtside.com bill@herrin.us
3005 Crane Dr. ...................... Web: <http://bill.herrin.us/>
Falls Church, VA 22042-3004

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